Archive for Peak Oil

Natural Gas 10 Years

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Auto Industry Default Risk Soars to 95% on GM, Ford

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“Systemic Financial Meltdown”

“I’m not trying to be shocking to anyone, but let’s face it,” said Mr. Sprott, chief executive officer of Sprott Inc. “When Bear Stearns goes down, Freddie and Fannie go down, and IndyMac goes broke, we have major issues out there.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20080801.RSPROTT01/TPStory/Business

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It’s 11:59. We still have more reserve than we’ve ever produced in the human history.

Yeah great. But how long will this more than ever reserve last?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY&feature=related

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Peak Oil leads to Peak Food

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Peak Oil & The World’s Future

Another evidence of Peak Oil: Suncor’s CEO said today that it requires $75 crude price just to break even due to increased difficulty in exploration and production. Guess what? A few years ago a typical oil sand project only costs about $30-$40 per barrel. It’s certainly getting harder and harder to extract the black gold out of the rigs.

World Oil Production, 1900-2080

Peak Oil is certainly coming. What does it mean to ordinary people like you and me? Not much to worry about except higher pump price? That’s what I thought too. What about Black out, Food Shortage? What about $400 Oil, 100% Unemployment Rate, 1000% Inflation? What about Civil Unrest, Global Resource Wars? What about Civilization as we know, may enter a new age that some calls PISA (Post Industrial Stone Age)?

A blip in the course of human history

I was threaten by the picture laid out by LATOC (Life After The Oil Crisis). Our food production, our construction sector, transportation sector, technology, highway, modern city, even financial system – everything is dependent on petroleum product. Dark age lies ahead, if we were not able to find alternative energy source, in time.

Wait a second – we already have Solar power, nuclear power, bio-fuel and etc. What about the fact that none of these scales up to a few million people, much less than the current 6.5 billion of our species? What if these ‘alternative’ energy source, is actually ‘derivative’ of oil? The fact is that we need oil in order to be able to set up the infrastructure of these energy source.

We’ve already passed discovery peak 40 years ago and are finding less and less new reserves. If we’re not able to find more and more, we’re certainly not able to produce more and more, it’s just as simple as that.

Peak Discovery leads to Peak Production

To me there’s no doubt that it’s coming. It’s just a problem of how mankind, as a whole, will maneuver it.  Deal with it, or it will deal with us. We have hope, we need to act. The next 50 – 100 years, mankind faces it’s biggest challenge ever. It’s up to us to save the cruise ship of the civilization, before we give it up for a few tiny lifeboat.

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